Prediction markets aren’t the only way to predict things. Probably the most popular way (aside from crystal ball gazing and guessing) is to use mathematical relationships that appear to hold true over time, and project them into the future or apply them to new data values. Author and Yale professor Ian Ayres has put together a list of online tools to do this kind of kind of forecasting on his site. Examples include predicting how long you’ll live, predicting your child’s height as an adult, etc.

Ian also has a book out on the topic of how businesses and other institutions are using data analysis to change the way they work. I haven’t read it yet, but it looks interesting so when I get a chance I’ll read it and post a review here.